By Yasmin Ramlan
SHAH ALAM, Dec 18 — Replacing Menteri Besar Dato’ Seri Amirudin Shari mid-term could severely impact the stability of the current state government, political analysts warned amid speculations of a leadership change.
The experts believe such a significant move — which would see Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz helm the state while Amirudin takes up a Cabinet position — could disrupt administrative functions and policy continuity, and stressed the importance of stable leadership to ensure sustained economic growth.
They also warned that such a development, if come to fruition, could strain the relationship between Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional (BN), which make up the state government, as it would involve Tengku Tengku Zafrul joining Parti Keadilan Rakyat.
Amirudin, on the other hand, is viewed as the “safer pair of hands” to lead the state, having played a key role in maintaining unity and fostering smooth cooperation between both coalitions. His departure could risk causing friction.
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Investment, Trade, and Industry Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz and Selangor Menteri Besar Dato’ Seri Amirudin Shari at the 2024 Selangor State Budget town hall session on October 23, 2023 , — Picture via FACEBOOK/TENGKU ZAFRUL[/caption]
“I don’t see any critical justification for Amirudin to take up a federal position or Zafrul to take over from Amirudin (as Menteri Besar), as Amirudin is doing a good job,” National Council of Professors fellow Azmi Hassan told Selangor Journal.
“Zafrul is certainly very capable, looking at his portfolio, having served as finance minister and now as investment, trade and industry minister. There’s no doubt about that.
“However, serving as the Selangor Menteri Besar is a highly challenging task that demands strong grassroots support. This is where Zafrul struggles, as he lacks the ability to secure support, particularly within Umno and likely in Keadilan as well.”
“I believe this could affect not only the state’s continued development, but also political stability.”
Rumours had recently floated that Tengku Zafrul is on the verge of quitting Umno and joining Keadilan as part of a move that would see him take over the Selangor Menteri Besar position, while Amirudin heads to Putrajaya.
This comes as his senatorship ends next year, meaning he would no longer be able to hold a ministerial position unless he wins a parliamentary seat.
Tengku Zafrul admitted he had indeed engaged with Keadilan, but dismissed rumours he had made a decision. He also denied any positions were discussed.
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Menteri Besar Dato’ Seri Amirudin Shari speaks at a press conference as Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz looks on, after officiating Miti Day 2023 at Dewan Raja Muda Musa, Shah Alam, on August 5, 2023. — Picture by HAFIZ OTHMAN/SELANGORKINI[/caption]
Disrupting the state administration
For Universiti Malaya’s Assoc Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi, a change of the guard just over a year after the state election could disrupt the administration due to policy shifts and administrative restructuring.
He pointed out that a leadership change often leads to a reshuffling of state officials and decision-makers. This, he warned, could affect project timelines and impact the smooth implementation of ongoing initiatives.
Additionally, he said a mid-term transition raises concerns among investors and businesses, who value stability.
“Even for someone like Zafrul, he may have his own priorities, delaying ongoing programmes. Policies may be reassessed or restructured, causing uncertainties among stakeholders,” he said.
“However, if Zafrul is well-prepared and supported, the transition could be smoother, albeit still with short-term disruptions,” he said when contacted.
Awang Azman also cautioned that a move from Umno to Keadilan by Tengku Zafrul could upset the dynamics of the Selangor Unity Government, creating tension if BN feels marginalised or sees it as a challenge to its position within the coalition.
He said managing BN’s response will be crucial, as party leaders may seek reassurances or compensatory roles to safeguard their influence. Without adequate consultation, BN could oppose such proposals to have Tengku Zafrul lead Selangor.
“Harapan and BN must avoid the perception that their power-sharing agreement is being compromised. Open communication and consensus-building will be essential to demonstrate coalition unity.
“If not handled delicately, this scenario could strain the Selangor Unity Government, potentially creating rifts on which the opposition could capitalise,” he said.
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Menteri Besar Dato’ Seri Amirudin Shari presents a token of appreciation to Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz during the opening of the 8th Selangor International Business Summit, at the Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre, on July 25, 2024. — Picture by AHMAD ZAKKI JILAN/MEDIA SELANGOR[/caption]
Voice of the people
However, Azmi and Awang Azman disagreed on voters’ reactions.
According to Awang Azman, it will largely depend on how the situation is handled — if the change is perceived as a political manoeuvre rather than a strategic necessity, it could alienate voters who prioritise stability over reshuffling.
“Voters who backed the Harapan-BN alliance may question the coalition’s unity and whether such a move is in their best interests. BN supporters may also view Zafrul’s potential switch to Keadilan as a betrayal.
“The opposition (Perikatan Nasional) could exploit this situation to paint the coalition as unstable and opportunistic, eroding trust ahead of the next election,” he said.
On performance and popularity, Awang Azman said Amirudin is generally regarded as a capable leader.
“Replacing him without strong justification may anger voters, particularly Harapan supporters. Conversely, Zafrul’s entry could be welcomed if voters perceive him as bringing economic expertise,” he said.
Meanwhile, Azmi said speculation about Tengku Zafrul switching from Umno to Keadilan could trigger dissatisfaction among both parties’ members, risking political instability in Selangor and at the federal level.
“Most likely, many within Umno will be displeased, as Zafrul has been treated like a prized asset in the party and is now leaving.”
“Keadilan will also not be happy. If the rumours are true that Zafrul will replace Amirudin, I’m sure he will be seen as an outsider, so both sides will not be happy.
“The only group that may be pleased is in the minority, but the majority of Keadilan members, Umno members, and Selangor voters will not welcome the move,” he said.
